Dip & bounce — one strategy only
BUY the dip, then SELL into the bounce; never hold to settlement.
Volatility harvesting, not a comeback bet. Entry needs both: a trailing / low win-prob side AND a Polymarket US book price of 30c or less. Holding a dip to settlement is a strategy violation and is logged as off-spec.
Historical, regular-season only, noisy (~17 games/season) — a prior for which teams tend to crater-and-bounce, not a promise. Preseason games are EXCLUDED (backups distort everything).
Watchlist not built yet
The weekly rebuild fills this from regular-season play-by-play history.
Late-lead buying is settlement farming
We measured it: a team leading in Q4 at win-prob 0.80–0.85 goes on to win 81.6% of the time, so an 80–85c entry buys roughly fair value and fees plus slippage eat the residue. Worse, that band is full of fragile one-score leads that hold only 75–78% — exactly the leads that die to two-minute drills and onside kicks. The NFL tab runs one strategy.
Askeo is advisory & paper — it surfaces and scores; you decide and execute. Places nothing.